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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE)
 

Dynamical behaviors of an Echinococcosis epidemic model with distributed delays

Pages: 1425 - 1445, Volume 14, Issue 5/6, October/December 2017      doi:10.3934/mbe.2017074

 
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Kai Wang - Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China (email)
Zhidong Teng - College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China (email)
Xueliang Zhang - Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China (email)

Abstract: In this paper, a novel spreading dynamical model for Echinococcosis with distributed time delays is proposed. For the model, we firstly give the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ and the existence of a unique endemic equilibrium when $\mathcal{R}_0>1$. Furthermore, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model. The results show that the dynamical properties of the model is completely determined by $\mathcal{R}_0$. That is, if $\mathcal{R}_0<1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if $\mathcal{R}_0>1$, the model is permanent and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. According to human Echinococcosis cases from January 2004 to December 2011 in Xinjiang, China, we estimate the parameters of the model and study the transmission trend of the disease in Xinjiang, China. The model provides an approximate estimate of the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0=1.23$ in Xinjiang, China. From theoretic results, we further find that Echinococcosis is endemic in Xinjiang, China. Finally, we perform some sensitivity analysis of several model parameters and give some useful measures on controlling the transmission of Echinococcosis.

Keywords:  Echinococcosis, distributed delays, transmission dynamics, basic reproduction number, global stability.
Mathematics Subject Classification:  Primary: 37N25, 93D30; Secondary: 92B05.

Received: July 2016;      Accepted: March 2017;      Available Online: May 2017.

 References