MBE
Stability and bifurcation analysis of epidemic models with saturated incidence rates: An application to a nonmonotone incidence rate
Yoichi Enatsu Yukihiko Nakata
We analyze local asymptotic stability of an SIRS epidemic model with a distributed delay. The incidence rate is given by a general saturated function of the number of infective individuals. Our first aim is to find a class of nonmonotone incidence rates such that a unique endemic equilibrium is always asymptotically stable. We establish a characterization for the incidence rate, which shows that nonmonotonicity with delay in the incidence rate is necessary for destabilization of the endemic equilibrium. We further elaborate the stability analysis for a specific incidence rate. Here we improve a stability condition obtained in [Y. Yang and D. Xiao, Influence of latent period and nonlinear incidence rate on the dynamics of SIRS epidemiological models, Disc. Cont. Dynam. Sys. B 13 (2010) 195-211], which is illustrated in a suitable parameter plane. Two-parameter plane analysis together with an application of the implicit function theorem facilitates us to obtain an exact stability condition. It is proven that as increasing a parameter, measuring saturation effect, the number of infective individuals at the endemic steady state decreases, while the equilibrium can be unstable via Hopf bifurcation. This can be interpreted as that reducing a contact rate may cause periodic oscillation of the number of infective individuals, thus disease can not be eradicated completely from the host population, though the level of the endemic equilibrium for the infective population decreases. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate our theoretical results.
keywords: nonlinear incidence rate Hopf bifurcation linearized stability delay differential equation. Epidemic model
MBE
Global stability for a class of discrete SIR epidemic models
Yoichi Enatsu Yukihiko Nakata Yoshiaki Muroya
In this paper, we propose a class of discrete SIR epidemic models which are derived from SIR epidemic models with distributed delays by using a variation of the backward Euler method. Applying a Lyapunov functional technique, it is shown that the global dynamics of each discrete SIR epidemic model are fully determined by a single threshold parameter and the effect of discrete time delays are harmless for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium of the model.
keywords: globally asymptotic stability distributed delays Backward Euler method Lyapunov functional. discrete SIR epidemic model
DCDS-B
A note on the global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant latency time and infectious period
Yoshiaki Muroya Yoichi Enatsu Huaixing Li
In this note, under the condition for the permanence used by [Beretta and Breda, An SEIR epidemic model with constant latency time and infectious period, Math. Biosci. Eng. 8 (2011) 931-952], applying modified monotone sequences, we establish the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium of this SEIR epidemic model, without any other additional conditions on the global stability.
keywords: monotone iterative technique. global asymptotic stability nonlinear incidence rate SEIR epidemic model
MBE
Threshold dynamics of an SIR epidemic model with hybrid of multigroup and patch structures
Toshikazu Kuniya Yoshiaki Muroya Yoichi Enatsu
In this paper, we formulate an SIR epidemic model with hybrid of multigroup and patch structures, which can be regarded as a model for the geographical spread of infectious diseases or a multi-group model with perturbation. We show that if a threshold value, which corresponds to the well-known basic reproduction number $R_0$, is less than or equal to unity, then the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable. We also show that if the threshold value is greater than unity, then the model is uniformly persistent and has an endemic equilibrium. Moreover, using a Lyapunov functional technique, we obtain a sufficient condition under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The sufficient condition is satisfied if the transmission coefficients in the same groups are large or the per capita recovery rates are small.
keywords: multigroup SIR epidemic model patch global asymptotic stability Lyapunov functional.
DCDS-B
Global stability of SIR epidemic models with a wide class of nonlinear incidence rates and distributed delays
Yoichi Enatsu Yukihiko Nakata Yoshiaki Muroya
In this paper, we establish the global asymptotic stability of equilibria for an SIR model of infectious diseases with distributed time delays governed by a wide class of nonlinear incidence rates. We obtain the global properties of the model by proving the permanence and constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional. Under some suitable assumptions on the nonlinear term in the incidence rate, the global dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the distributed delays do not influence the global dynamics of the model.
keywords: Lyapunov functional. distributed delays permanence SIR epidemic models nonlinear incidence rate global asymptotic stability
PROC
On the global stability of an SIRS epidemic model with distributed delays
Yukihiko Nakata Yoichi Enatsu Yoshiaki Muroya
In this paper, we establish the global asymptotic stability of an endemic equilibrium for an SIRS epidemic model with distributed time delays. It is shown that the global stability holds for any rate of immunity loss, if the basic reproduction number is greater than 1 and less than or equals to a critical value. Otherwise, there is a maximal rate of immunity loss which guarantees the global stability. By using an extension of a Lyapunov functional established by [C.C. McCluskey, Complete global stability for an SIR epidemic model with delay-Distributed or discrete, Nonlinear Anal. RWA. 11 (2010) 55-59], we provide a partial answer to an open problem whether the endemic equilibrium is globally stable, whenever it exists, or not.
keywords: global asymptotic stability distributed delays SIRS epidemic model Lyapunov functional
DCDS-B
Global stability of a delayed multi-group SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rates and relapse of infection
Yoshiaki Muroya Toshikazu Kuniya Yoichi Enatsu
In this paper, we investigate the global stability of a delayed multi-group SIRS epidemic model which includes not only nonlinear incidence rates but also rates of immunity loss and relapse of infection. The model analysis can be regarded as an extension to a multi-group epidemic analysis in [Muroya, Li and Kuniya, Complete global analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with graded cure rate and incomplete recovery rate, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 410 (2014) 719-732] is studied. Applying a Lyapunov functional approach, we prove that a disease-free equilibrium of the model, is globally asymptotically stable, if a threshold parameter $R_0 \leq 1$. For the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of the model, we establish a sufficient condition for small recovery rates $\delta_k \geq 0$, $k=1,2,\ldots,n$, if $R_0>1$. Further, by a monotone iterative approach, we obtain another sufficient condition for large $\delta_k$, $k=1,2,\ldots,n$. Both results generalize several known results obtained for, e.g., SIS, SIR and SIRS models in the recent literature. We also offer a new proof on permanence which is applicable to other multi-group epidemic models.
keywords: delay Lyapunov functional. nonlinear incidence rate Multi-group model global asymptotic stability permanence

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