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2013, 2013(special): 747-757. doi: 10.3934/proc.2013.2013.747

Analyzing the infection dynamics and control strategies of cholera

1. 

Mathematics Department, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187, United States

2. 

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, China

3. 

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529

Received  July 2012 Published  November 2013

We conduct a rigorous analysis for the differential equation-based cholera model proposed in [3]. Unlike traditional infectious disease SIR-type models, this model explicitly includes cholerae bacteria from the environments, and the incidence rate is a dose-dependent Michaelis-Menten type functional response. By extending the theory of monotone dynamical systems, we prove that the endemic equilibrium, when it exists, of the model is globally asymptotically stable, implying the persistence of the disease in the absence of interventions. We then modify the model by incorporating various control strategies, and study the subsequent dynamics. We find that with strong control measures, the basic reproduction number will be reduced below 1 so that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. With weak controls, instead, epidemicity still occurs and a unique and globally stable endemic equilibrium state exists, though at a lower infection level and with a reduced disease outbreak growth rate. The analytical predictions are confirmed by numerical results.
Citation: Jianjun Paul Tian, Shu Liao, Jin Wang. Analyzing the infection dynamics and control strategies of cholera. Conference Publications, 2013, 2013 (special) : 747-757. doi: 10.3934/proc.2013.2013.747
References:
[1]

R.M. Anderson and R.M. May, Infectious diseases of humans,, Oxford University Press, (1991).

[2]

G. J. Butler and P. Waltman, Persistence in dynamical systems,, Journal of Differential Equations 63: 255-263, (1986), 255.

[3]

C.T. Codeço, Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir,, BMC Infectious Diseases, (2001).

[4]

D.M. Hartley, J.G. Morris and D.L. Smith, Hyperinfectivity: a critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics?, PLoS Medicine, (2006), 0063.

[5]

P. Hartman, Ordinary differential equations,, John Wiley, (1980).

[6]

A.A. King, E.L. Lonides, M. Pascual and M.J. Bouma, Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics,, Nature, (2008), 877.

[7]

G.A. Korn and T.M. Korn, Mathematical handbook for scientists and engineers: definitions, theorems, and formulas for references and review,, Dover Publications, (2000).

[8]

M.M. Levine, D.R. Nalin, M.B. Rennels, et al., Genetic susceptibility to cholera,, Annals of Human Biology, (1979), 369.

[9]

M.Y. Li, J.R. Graef, L. Wang and J. Karsai, Global dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size,, Mathematical Biosciences, (1999), 191.

[10]

M.Y. Li and J.S. Muldowney, Global stability for the SEIR model in epidemiology,, Mathematical Biosciences, (1995), 155.

[11]

Z. Mukandavire, S. Liao, J. Wang, H. Gaff, D.L. Smith and J.G. Morris, Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008-2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe,, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (2011), 8767.

[12]

J. S. Muldowney, Compound matrices and ordinary differential equations,, Rocky Mountain Journal of Mathematics, (1990), 857.

[13]

M.A. Savageau, Michaelis-Menten mechanism reconsidered: implications of fractal kinetics,, Journal of Theoretical Biology, (1995), 115.

[14]

H.L. Smith, Monotone Dynamical Systems: An Introduction to the Theory of Competitive and Cooperative Systems,, American Mathematical Society, (1995).

[15]

H.L. Smith and H.R. Zhu, Stable periodic orbits for a class of three dimensional competitive systems,, Journal of Differential Equations, (1994), 143.

[16]

J.P. Tian and J. Wang, Global stability for cholera epidemic models,, Mathematical Biosciences, (2011), 31.

[17]

J.H. Tien and D.J.D. Earn, Multiple transmission pathways and disease dynamics in a waterborne pathogen model,, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, (2010), 1502.

[18]

J. Wang and S. Liao, A generalized cholera model and epidemic-endemic analysis,, Journal of Biological Dynamics, (2012), 568.

[19]

J. Zhang and Z. Ma, Global dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturating contact rate,, Mathematical Biosciences, (2003), 15.

show all references

References:
[1]

R.M. Anderson and R.M. May, Infectious diseases of humans,, Oxford University Press, (1991).

[2]

G. J. Butler and P. Waltman, Persistence in dynamical systems,, Journal of Differential Equations 63: 255-263, (1986), 255.

[3]

C.T. Codeço, Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir,, BMC Infectious Diseases, (2001).

[4]

D.M. Hartley, J.G. Morris and D.L. Smith, Hyperinfectivity: a critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics?, PLoS Medicine, (2006), 0063.

[5]

P. Hartman, Ordinary differential equations,, John Wiley, (1980).

[6]

A.A. King, E.L. Lonides, M. Pascual and M.J. Bouma, Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics,, Nature, (2008), 877.

[7]

G.A. Korn and T.M. Korn, Mathematical handbook for scientists and engineers: definitions, theorems, and formulas for references and review,, Dover Publications, (2000).

[8]

M.M. Levine, D.R. Nalin, M.B. Rennels, et al., Genetic susceptibility to cholera,, Annals of Human Biology, (1979), 369.

[9]

M.Y. Li, J.R. Graef, L. Wang and J. Karsai, Global dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size,, Mathematical Biosciences, (1999), 191.

[10]

M.Y. Li and J.S. Muldowney, Global stability for the SEIR model in epidemiology,, Mathematical Biosciences, (1995), 155.

[11]

Z. Mukandavire, S. Liao, J. Wang, H. Gaff, D.L. Smith and J.G. Morris, Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008-2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe,, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (2011), 8767.

[12]

J. S. Muldowney, Compound matrices and ordinary differential equations,, Rocky Mountain Journal of Mathematics, (1990), 857.

[13]

M.A. Savageau, Michaelis-Menten mechanism reconsidered: implications of fractal kinetics,, Journal of Theoretical Biology, (1995), 115.

[14]

H.L. Smith, Monotone Dynamical Systems: An Introduction to the Theory of Competitive and Cooperative Systems,, American Mathematical Society, (1995).

[15]

H.L. Smith and H.R. Zhu, Stable periodic orbits for a class of three dimensional competitive systems,, Journal of Differential Equations, (1994), 143.

[16]

J.P. Tian and J. Wang, Global stability for cholera epidemic models,, Mathematical Biosciences, (2011), 31.

[17]

J.H. Tien and D.J.D. Earn, Multiple transmission pathways and disease dynamics in a waterborne pathogen model,, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, (2010), 1502.

[18]

J. Wang and S. Liao, A generalized cholera model and epidemic-endemic analysis,, Journal of Biological Dynamics, (2012), 568.

[19]

J. Zhang and Z. Ma, Global dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturating contact rate,, Mathematical Biosciences, (2003), 15.

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