ISSN:

1551-0018

eISSN:

1547-1063

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## Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering

October & December 2017 , Volume 14 , Issue 5&6

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In this paper, we investigate the global stability of the steady states of a general reaction-diffusion epidemiological model with infection force under intervention strategies in a spatially heterogeneous environment. We prove that the reproduction number *low*-*risk* habitat for the population to effectively control the spread of the epidemic disease. This may provide some potential applications in disease control.

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An non-autonomous nutrient-phytoplankton interacting model incorporating the effect of time-varying temperature is established. The impacts of temperature on metabolism of phytoplankton such as nutrient uptake, death rate, and nutrient releasing from particulate nutrient are investigated. The ecological reproductive index is formulated to present a threshold criteria and to characterize the dynamics of phytoplankton. The positive invariance, dissipativity, and the existence and stability of boundary and positive periodic solution are established. The analyses rely on the comparison principle, the coincidence degree theory and Lyapunov direct method. The effect of seasonal temperature and daily temperature on phytoplankton biomass are simulated numerically. Numerical simulation shows that the phytoplankton biomass is very robust to the variation of water temperature. The dynamics of the model and model predictions agree with the experimental data. Our model and analysis provide a possible explanation of triggering mechanism of phytoplankton blooms.

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Zoonosis is the kind of infectious disease transmitting among different species by zoonotic pathogens. Different species play different roles in zoonoses. In this paper, we established a basic model to describe the zoonotic pathogen transmission from wildlife, to domestic animals, to humans. Then we put three strategies into the basic model to control the emerging zoonoses. Three strategies are corresponding to control measures of isolation, slaughter or similar in wildlife, domestic animals and humans respectively. We analyzed the effects of these three strategies on control reproductive numbers and equilibriums and we took avian influenza epidemic in China as an example to show the impacts of the strategies on emerging zoonoses in different areas at beginning.

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In this paper, an SIR patch model with vaccination is formulated to investigate the effect of vaccination coverage and the impact of human mobility on the spread of diseases among patches. The control reproduction number

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In this paper, a partial differential equation (PDE) model is proposed to explore the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. The model includes both incubation age of the exposed hosts and infection age of the infectious hosts which describe incubation-age dependent removal rates in the latent period and the variable infectiousness in the infectious period, respectively. The reproductive number

*+*[Abstract](1185)

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**Abstract:**

This paper is concerned with invasion entire solutions of a monostable time periodic Lotka-Volterra competition-diffusion system. We first give the asymptotic behaviors of time periodic traveling wave solutions at infinity by a dynamical approach coupled with the two-sided Laplace transform. According to these asymptotic behaviors, we then obtain some key estimates which are crucial for the construction of an appropriate pair of sub-super solutions. Finally, using the sub-super solutions method and comparison principle, we establish the existence of invasion entire solutions which behave as two periodic traveling fronts with different speeds propagating from both sides of *x*-axis. In other words, we formulate a new invasion way of the superior species to the inferior one in a time periodic environment.

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When a network reaches a certain size, its node degree can be considered as a continuous variable, which we will call continuous degree. Using continuous degree method (CDM), we analytically calculate certain structure of the network and study the spread of epidemics on a growing network. Firstly, using CDM we calculate the degree distributions of three different growing models, which are the BA growing model, the preferential attachment accelerating growing model and the random attachment growing model. We obtain the evolution equation for the cumulative distribution function

*+*[Abstract](1968)

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In this paper, we formulate a virus dynamics model with the recruitment of immune responses, saturation effects and an intracellular time delay. With the help of uniform persistence theory and Lyapunov method, we show that the global stability of the model is totally determined by the basic reproductive number $R_0$. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the recruitment of immune responses on virus infection by numerical simulation. The results show ignoring the recruitment of immune responses will result in overestimation of the basic reproductive number and the severity of viral infection.

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Circadian rhythms of physiology and behavior are widespread\break mechanisms in many organisms. The internal biological rhythms are driven by molecular clocks, which oscillate with a period nearly but not exactly

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The stochastic nature of cell-specific signal molecules (such as transcription factor, ribosome, etc.) and the intrinsic stochastic nature of gene expression process result in cell-to-cell variations at protein levels. Increasing experimental evidences suggest that cell phenotypic variations often depend on the accumulation of some special proteins. Hence, a natural and fundamental question is: How does input signal affect the timing of protein count up to a given threshold? To this end, we study effects of input signal on the first-passage time (FPT), the time at which the number of proteins crosses a given threshold. Input signal is distinguished into two types: constant input signal and random input signal, regulating only burst frequency (or burst size) of gene expression. Firstly, we derive analytical formulae for FPT moments in each case of constant signal regulation and random signal regulation. Then, we find that random input signal tends to increases the mean and noise of FPT compared with constant input signal. Finally, we observe that different regulation ways of random signal have different effects on FPT, that is, burst size modulation tends to decrease the mean of FPT and increase the noise of FPT compared with burst frequency modulation. Our findings imply a fundamental mechanism that random fluctuating environment may prolong FPT. This can provide theoretical guidance for studies of some cellular key events such as latency of HIV and lysis time of bacteriophage $λ.$ In conclusion, our results reveal impacts of external signal on FPT and aid understanding the regulation mechanism of gene expression.

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Schistosomiasis, a parasitic disease caused by *Schistosoma Japonicum*, is still one of the most serious parasitic diseases in China and remains endemic in seven provinces, including Hubei, Anhui, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Yunnan. The monthly data of human schistosomiasis cases in Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui provinces (lake and marshland regions) released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) display a periodic pattern with more cases in late summer and early autumn. Based on this observation, we construct a deterministic model with periodic transmission rates to study the seasonal transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis in these lake and marshland regions in China. We calculate the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$, discuss the dynamical behavior of solutions to the model, and use the model to fit the monthly data of human schistosomiasis cases in Hubei. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ in terms of model parameters. Our results indicate that treatment of at-risk population groups, improving sanitation, hygiene education, and snail control are effective measures in controlling human schistosomiasis in these lakes and marshland regions.

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Ticks, including the *Ixodes ricinus* and *Ixodes scapularis* hard tick species, are regarded as the most common arthropod vectors of both human and animal diseases in Europe and the United States capable of transmitting a large number of bacteria, viruses and parasites. Since ticks in larval and nymphal stages share the same host community which can harbor multiple pathogens, they may be co-infected with two or more pathogens, with a subsequent high likelihood of co-transmission to humans or animals. This paper is devoted to the modeling of co-infection of tick-borne pathogens, with special focus on the co-infection of *Borrelia burgdorferi* (agent of Lyme disease) and *Babesia microti* (agent of human babesiosis). Considering the effect of co-infection, we illustrate that co-infection with *B. burgdorferi* increases the likelihood of *B. microti* transmission, by increasing the basic reproduction number of *B. microti* below the threshold smaller than one to be possibly above the threshold for persistence. The study confirms a mechanism of the ecological fitness paradox, the establishment of *B. microti* which has weak fitness (basic reproduction number less than one). Furthermore, co-infection could facilitate range expansion of both pathogens.

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To study the impact of media coverage on spread and control of infectious diseases, we use a susceptible-exposed-infective (SEI) model, including individuals' behavior changes in their contacts due to the influences of media coverage, and fully investigate the model dynamics. We define the basic reproductive number

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In this paper, an

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Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPRs) along with Cas proteins are a widespread immune system across bacteria and archaea. In this paper, a mathematical model in a chemostat is proposed to investigate the effect of CRISPR/Cas on the bacteriophage dynamics. It is shown that the introduction of CRISPR/Cas can induce a backward bifurcation and transcritical bifurcation. Numerical simulations reveal the coexistence of a stable infection-free equilibrium with an infection equilibrium, or a stable infection-free equilibrium with a stable periodic solution.

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In this paper, we study a mathematical model of stem cell regeneration with epigenetic state transitions. In the model, the heterogeneity of stem cells is considered through the epigenetic state of each cell, and each epigenetic state defines a subpopulation of stem cells. The dynamics of the subpopulations are modeled by a set of ordinary differential equations in which epigenetic state transition in cell division is given by the transition probability. We present analysis for the existence and linear stability of the equilibrium state. As an example, we apply the model to study the dynamics of state transition in breast cancer stem cells.

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The properties of the limit sets of orbits of planar impulsive semi-dynamic system strictly depend on the continuity of the function, which describes the times of meeting impulsive sets. In this note, we will show a more realistic counter example on the continuity of this function which has been proven and widely used in impulsive dynamical system and applied in life sciences including population dynamics and disease control. Further, what extra condition should be added to guarantee the continuity of the function has been addressed generally, and then the applications and shortcomings have been discussed when using the properties of this function.

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In this paper, we consider a compartmental SIRS epidemic model with asymptomatic infection and seasonal succession, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. The basic reproduction number

*+*[Abstract](1692)

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In this paper, a novel spreading dynamical model for *Echinococcosis* with distributed time delays is proposed. For the model, we firstly give the basic reproduction number *Echinococcosis* cases from January 2004 to December 2011 in Xinjiang, China, we estimate the parameters of the model and study the transmission trend of the disease in Xinjiang, China. The model provides an approximate estimate of the basic reproduction number *Echinococcosis* is endemic in Xinjiang, China. Finally, we perform some sensitivity analysis of several model parameters and give some useful measures on controlling the transmission of *Echinococcosis*.

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The circadian clock is a self-sustaining oscillator that has a period of about 24 hours at the molecular level. The oscillator is a transcription-translation feedback loop system composed of several genes. In this paper, a scalar nonlinear differential equation with two delays, modeling the transcriptional co-regulation in mammalian circadian clock, is proposed and analyzed. Sufficient conditions are established for the asymptotic stability of the unique nontrivial positive equilibrium point of the model by studying an exponential polynomial characteristic equation with delay-dependent coefficients. The existence of the Hopf bifurcations can be also obtained. Numerical simulations of the model with proper parameter values coincide with the theoretical result.

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A facilitation-competition system of two species is considered, where one species has a facilitation effect on the other but there is spatial competition between them. Our aim is to show mechanism by which the facilitation promotes coexistence of the species. A lattice gas model describing the facilitation-competition system is analyzed, in which nonexistence of periodic solution is shown and previous results are extended. Global dynamics of the model demonstrate essential features of the facilitation-competition system. When a species cannot survive alone, a strong facilitation from the other would lead to its survival. However, if the facilitation is extremely strong, both species go extinct. When a species can survive alone and its mortality rate is not larger than that of the other species, it would drive the other one into extinction. When a species can survive alone and its mortality rate is larger than that of the other species, it would be driven into extinction if the facilitation from the other is weak, while it would coexist with the other if the facilitation is strong. Moreover, an extremely strong facilitation from the other would lead to extinction of species. Bifurcation diagram of the system exhibits that interaction outcome between the species can transition between competition, amensalism, neutralism and parasitism in a smooth fashion. A novel result of this paper is the rigorous and thorough analysis, which displays transparency of dynamics in the system. Numerical simulations validate the results.

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In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a delayed logistic model with both impulsive and stochastic perturbations. The impulse is introduced at fixed moments and the stochastic perturbation is of white noise type which is assumed to be proportional to the population density. We start with the existence and uniqueness of the positive solution of the model, then establish sufficient conditions ensuring its global attractivity. By using the theory of integral Markov semigroups, we further derive sufficient conditions for the existence of the stationary distribution of the system. Finally, we perform the extinction analysis of the model. Numerical simulations illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

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There have been some results on bifurcations of codimension one (such as saddle-node, transcritical, pitchfork) and degenerate Hopf bifurcations for an enzyme-catalyzed reaction system comprising a branched network but no further discussion for bifurcations at its cusp. In this paper we give conditions for the existence of a cusp and compute the parameter curves for the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, which induces the appearance of homoclinic orbits and periodic orbits, indicating the tendency to steady-states or a rise of periodic oscillations for the concentrations of the substrate and the product.

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We consider a reaction diffusion equation with a delayed nonlocal nonlinearity and subject to Dirichlet boundary condition. The model equation is motivated by infection dynamics of disease spread (avian influenza, for example) through environment contamination, and the nonlinearity takes into account of distribution of limited resources for rapid and slow interventions to clean contaminated environment. We determine conditions under which an equilibrium with positive value in the interior of the domain (disease equilibrium) emerges and determine conditions under which Hope bifurcation occurs. For a fixed pair of rapid and slow response delay, we show that nonlinear oscillations can be avoided by distributing resources for both fast or slow interventions.

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In this paper, a time periodic and two–group reaction–diffusion epidemic model with distributed delay is proposed and investigated. We firstly introduce the basic reproduction number

*+*[Abstract](1255)

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In this paper, a reaction-diffusion-advection SIR model for the transmission of the infectious disease is proposed and analyzed. The free boundaries are introduced to describe the spreading fronts of the disease. By exhibiting the basic reproduction number

*+*[Abstract](1836)

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In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis. Three populations: dogs, sandflies and humans, are considered in the model. Based on recent studies, we include vertical transmission of dogs in the spread of the disease. We also investigate the impact of asymptomatic humans and dogs as secondary reservoirs of the parasites. The basic reproduction number and sensitivity analysis show that the control of dog-sandfly transmission is more important for the elimination of the disease. Vaccination of susceptible dogs, treatment of infective dogs, as well as control of vertical transmission in dogs are effective prevention and control measures for visceral leishmaniasis.

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